Milton leaders are bracing for a significant structural deficit that could necessitate a multi-million dollar tax override as early as 2028 to maintain current service levels. During a detailed budget forecast presentation, Warrant Committee Chair Jay Fundling outlined a fiscal trajectory where town expenses are consistently outpacing revenue growth, creating a "stair-step" shortfall that threatens the town’s long-term financial stability. Fundling noted that while property taxes generally grow by approximately 3% annually including new growth, expenses driven by union salaries and health insurance are rising at a much faster rate.

One fundamental fact of our budget is expenses grow faster than revenue, Fundling told the committee. Our expenses, including union salaries and health insurance, grow by more than 3%... I've incorporated that our expenses are rising faster than our revenue. To bridge this gap, the town has relied on an Operating Budget Stabilization Fund established during the last override, but Fundling warned that the town needs a formal policy to manage this reserve rather than winging it as the funds are depleted.

The presentation compared three potential paths for the town. An override in 2030 was described as resulting in catastrophic budget shortfalls in the preceding years. A second scenario involved a $14.5 million override in 2029, which would still require two years of significant service cuts. The most stable option presented was an $11.5 million override in 2028. Fundling argued this would allow for a fully funded level service budget every year without the need to reduce staff or programs.

The committee engaged in a vigorous debate over the assumptions used to build these forecasts. Brian Maguire questioned the 5% expense growth rate applied to school budgets, noting that pre-pandemic figures were closer to 4.2%. The biggest question is what do you project for increased expenses over the future? Maguire asked, adding that baking in 5% guarantees an override sooner than you need to. Cecil Yang also sought clarity on the scale of the projections, asking, In slide four, is that percentage or millions of dollars? to which Fundling confirmed the figures represented millions in potential shortfalls.

Other members focused on the need for inter-departmental cooperation to control costs before asking taxpayers for more money. Ronald Thea expressed concern regarding the role of the schools in this fiscal picture. I do wonder as a citizen, what is the school board's position on how they propose to control costs? Thea said. I would expect the school board sits down with the select board and this warrant committee to come up with a plan as opposed to us getting there and not knowing what's going on.

As the committee refined the presentation for the upcoming Town Meeting, Nicholas Tangy suggested a more streamlined narrative for the public, focusing on the history of the revenue gap and the specific role of the stabilization fund. I think there are four main points: the history of the gap, how the stabilization fund works, the case for future challenges, and the plea for a policy, Tangy recommended. Larry Johnson agreed that the core message of an impending override was clear enough without the committee tethering itself to a specific date immediately. Johnson noted, I think the message that there's an override coming is probably strong enough and then you can leave it to work with the other committees to decide exactly when.

To ensure residents are fully informed before the official vote, the committee reached a consensus to hold a dedicated public meeting on the Monday before Town Meeting. This session is intended to provide a more interactive forum for residents to ask questions about the 2028 and 2029 fiscal scenarios. Fundling indicated he would coordinate with the Town Moderator to promote the event, aiming to maximize engagement following the town election.