Milton is facing a structural budget deficit that could necessitate a property tax override as high as $14.5 million by 2029, according to financial forecasts presented to the Warrant Committee Monday night. Committee Chair Jay Fundling warned that the town’s expenses, driven primarily by union-negotiated salaries and rising health insurance premiums, are climbing at a rate of roughly 3 percent annually, outstripping the revenue growth permitted under Proposition 2 1/2. A fundamental fact of our budget is that expenses grow faster than revenue, Fundling said, noting that even with a recent override, the school budget remained underfunded by $1 million this year, leading to staff layoffs.

The committee examined three fiscal scenarios, each highlighting the trade-offs between service cuts and tax increases. A 2028 override of $11.5 million would maintain level services, while pushing the request to 2029 would require a larger $14.5 million sum to restore services after two years of anticipated shortfalls. Fundling cautioned that delaying a request until 2030 would result in catastrophic deficits equivalent to the loss of 64 municipal employees. Nicholas Tangy suggested that the data be presented clearly to the public to ensure transparency, noting, the risk of a conservative forecast is that departments might not manage as conservatively as they should if they see a higher number budgeted.

To manage the transition between overrides, Fundling proposed a formal policy for the town’s Operating Budget Stabilization Fund, which currently holds approximately $3 million. He advocated for the Select Board to adopt specific rules for how these reserve funds are spent down over time. It will have the most teeth if the Select Board adopts it rather than just winging it, Fundling said. Ronald Thea agreed with the need for a framework but urged deeper collaboration on cost containment, specifically regarding the school district. The three bodies need to sit down and think holistically about how the schools can contain costs. Maybe they need to make some tough calls, Thea said.

School spending emerged as a primary focus of the discussion, with Brian Maguire highlighting a significant spike in growth rates. Milton's pre-COVID growth was 4.2%, post-COVID it's 7.1%. If things get back to normal, we should be between 3% and 4%, Maguire noted, warning that if we bake in 5%, we guarantee an override sooner than we need to. Cecile Yang sought clarification on the visual data presented, asking if the figures on the projected shortfall graphs represented a percentage on the y-axis, which Fundling clarified were millions of dollars in total projected deficit.

The committee also debated the timing of any official recommendations to the Select Board. James Larry Johnson suggested that the immediate focus should be on the upcoming Town Meeting rather than pinning down a specific year for the next tax increase. The message that an override is coming is strong enough, Johnson said. You don't need to make a specific recommendation on the date yet without consulting the other committees.

Looking ahead, the committee plans to hold a dedicated public meeting or webinar between the local election and Town Meeting to socialize these financial realities with residents. Fundling expressed a desire to hold an in-person session at the library to field questions and explain the "stair-step" nature of the town's rising shortfalls. If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice, Fundling told the committee, emphasizing that the town must have a target override year selected by September to inform next year's budget cycle.